Demagogue

About the Iraqi election, I mean. Sort of like this guy.

Nothing that happened yesterday changes my pessimistic mind very much. It was undeniably inspiring to see the jubilation of many voters. Things went about as well as could have been expected (i.e., voting in Shia areas was high, which might not have happened, while the Kurds predictably turned out and the Sunnis predictably did not).

But the problems foreseen before the election are still there. There are many of these, the most obvious of which revolve around the likely Shia domination of the elected assembly, the degree of influence that Sistani and other clerics will have in drafting the constitution, the Shia-Sunni conflict, the Shia-Kurd conflict (Sistani would like to take away the Kurds' veto), and of course the ongoing violence and the Iraqi government's (and army's) complete inability to survive without American and British occupiers. Juan Cole gives a much better run down than I ever could, but there is one quote I'd like to mention. It came from a professor at Teheran University. She said that the Iranian government was pretty happy at the idea of Iraqi elections; by delivering a Shia-dominated government, the U.S.-led invasion will have given Iran what it unsuccessfully fought for in its long and bloody war against Iraq in the 1980s.

One aspect of the election that was utterly predictable was the self-congratulatory press coverage. Professor Cole proclaims himself "appalled by the cheerleading tones of US news coverage." The coverage may be appalling, but it can hardly have come as a surprise; I suggest Professor Cole take the Elvis Costello approach ("I used to be disgusted. Now I try to be amused."). I can't imagine what Fox was like. It was bad enough listening to the BBC World Service yesterday, which was credulously reporting the claim--hours before polls closed--that there had already been 72% turnout.

Trivia question: since the war began in March 2003, on which single day have the most British troops died in Iraq?

Answer: Yesterday.

As I said, I hope I'm wrong.