What the GOP's Crystal Ball Said 3 Years Ago

Tuesday, November 14, 2006

What the GOP's Crystal Ball Said 3 Years Ago

More than a few Republicans have taken solace in the fact that their defeat in the U.S. House and Senate could have been worse. However, their attempts to use electoral history as a barometer don't quite work all that well.

Across the country, congressional districts have become increasingly gerrymandered — so much so that at least 100 of them had almost no chance of ever being put "in play" this year. Black-majority districts have also contributed to the trend toward making more and more House districts electorally "safe" for one party or the other.

These gerrymandering efforts got so out of hand that many political operatives assumed that the GOP would never lose control of both houses in the near future.

Thanks to Jesselee at The Stakeholder, I was reminded of an interesting prediction made by a GOP operative in Texas three years ago. Back then, the Wash Post reported:
The Texas Legislature neared final passage of a Republican-sponsored congressional redistricting plan last night amid bitter partisan battling that was further inflamed by an internal GOP analysis of the plan's likely impact on the state's congressional delegation.

... "This is the most aggressive map I have ever seen," Joby Fortson wrote in the analysis, which he e-mailed to congressional aides. "This has a real national impact that should assure that Republicans keep the House no matter the national mood."

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