Poll Watching Is Like Dropping Acid 79 Times

Monday, November 06, 2006

Poll Watching Is Like Dropping Acid 79 Times

Both will induce insanity.

I wrote this post earlier today about Charlie Cook's view that turnout would favor the Dems. Well, the Post today counters with this news:
A Pew Research Center poll showed a significant narrowing in the partisan advantage in House races that the Democrats have enjoyed for much of the year ....

The Pew poll showed that the Democratic advantage had dropped to 47 percent to Republicans' 43 percent among likely voters, down from 50 percent to 39 percent two weeks ago.

The poll found a drop in Democratic support among independents, but Pew Director Andrew Kohut said the most significant change over the past two weeks is that Republicans now outnumber Democrats among likely voters.
Not good news.
Separately, a USA Today/Gallup Poll showed Democrats leading Republicans by 51 percent to 44 percent among likely voters on the "generic vote" -- the question of which party voters intend to support in House races -- down from a 13-percentage-point advantage two weeks ago.
Even worse news.
But [USA Today] noted Republicans enjoyed a similar 7-point edge on the eve of their 1994 landslide victory.
Right now, I'm confident of absolutely nothing.

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