Bill Kristol's Evolving Predictions

Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Bill Kristol's Evolving Predictions

In this article published in September 2003 — that’s 2003, I emphasize — conservatives Bill Kristol and Robert Kagan wrote:
Make no mistake: The president's vision will, in the coming months, either be launched successfully in Iraq, or it will die in Iraq.
Although Kristol and Kagan aren't specific, I suspect that most people would interpret "the coming months" as meaning roughly 5 to 12 months. Any period longer than that, and the co-authors would surely have used "within the next year" or a similar phrase.

So am I the only one who finds this strange? Three years after Kristol co-authored an article saying the fate of the U.S. presence in Iraq would be decided by early 2004, he co-authored this article declaring:
We are at a crucial moment in Iraq .... at this urgent pass, there can be no doubt that we need to stop the downward slide in Iraq by securing Baghdad.

... More U.S. troops in Iraq would improve our chances of winning a decisive battle at a decisive moment.
If anyone is guilty of "an artificial timetable," it appears to be Kristol.

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