Demagogue

The outgoing ambassador to Baghdad has warned that civil war is the most likely outcome in Iraq, according to a leaked report. In a confidential memo to ministers, William Patey also predicted the break-up of Iraq along ethnic lines.

The grim assessment from Britain's most senior civil servant in Iraq will have come as a blow to Tony Blair and his attempts to portray Iraq as "at a new beginning" on the road to a stable democracy.

The judgment was contained in Mr Patey's final telegram, or e-cable, from Baghdad before he left the Iraqi capital last week -- details of which were obtained by the BBC.

... "The prospect of a low intensity civil war and a de facto division of Iraq is probably more likely at this stage than a successful and substantial transition to a stable democracy," Mr Patey wrote.