Demagogue

Did you catch the new poll by CNN-USA Today-Gallup released late last week on the Iraq war? It showed that Americans have turned more pessimistic (surprise, surprise) on U.S. involvement in Iraq. But there's a sequence of questions that makes the public – at least a chunk of those surveyed – look either ridiculous or uncaring.

If you click on the hyperlink, go to the box marked "Related," click on the "interactive" link and check out the public's response to these questions:

Question: Which comes closest to your view about the war with Iraq: You are certain that the U.S. will win, you think it is likely that the U.S. will win, you think it is unlikely that the U.S. will win, or you are certain that the U.S. will not win?

Certain U.S. will win ......... 22%
Likely U.S. will win ........... 32%
Unlikely U.S. will win ......... 25%
Certain U.S. will not win ..... 16%
No opinion ..................... 6%

Okay, so a majority (54%) believes the U.S. is "certain" or "likely" to win the war. But now look at the next question:

Question: What do you think is more likely to happen in Iraq: The situation will turn into chaos and civil war, or the Iraqi people will be able to establish a stable government?

Chaos/civil war ............. 55%
Stable government ......... 40%
No opinion .................... 5%

Only 40% think Iraq will come out of this with a "stable government" – that's a 14-point gap from the 54% who felt we would "win." Clearly, there's an overlap; some people who think we'll probably or certainly "win" also see Iraq turning into sheer chaos.

So here's my question for those people who are part of the 54% "win" majority and also part of the 55% "chaos" majority: How the hell can you define "chaos and civil war" in Iraq as a "win"?

I'm totally confused by this. Am I the only person who considers this one hell of an inconsistency?