Demagogue

When the disclaimer stickers about evolution were ordered removed from Cobb County textbooks, I concluded two things: first, the judge got it wrong; second, the Eleventh Circuit would reverse. The first is a matter of opinion, so we'll never know whether I was right; but we will in the fullness of time know whether my prediction about the appeals court was on target. As Frederick mentioned yesterday, the school board decided to appeal.

I see no reason to reconsider my initial prediction. Even without knowing which three judges will be on the panel, I'd put money on the Eleventh Circuit's reversing the decision.

I reserve the right to change my mind if the Ninth Circuit's Stephen Reinhardt sits on the panel by designation (i.e., as a guest member of another court).

By the way, the appeal may not be throwing good money after bad. I'm sure that this case falls under the federal fee-shifting statute for civil rights cases: because it lost the case, the school board will have to pay the plaintiffs' attorneys' fees, plus any fees paid to expert witnesses. But if the appeal succeeds, then that liability will be wiped out. Of course, if the appeal fails, the board will end up paying not only its own appellate lawyers, but the plaintiffs' as well. Still, if the board shares my view as to the likely outcome of the appeal, the rational course, from a purely financial point of view, is to press ahead. Given the disadvantageous fact that they'll have to pay for their own lawyers even if they win, mitigated by the advantageous fact that appeals cost much less than trials, the odds of success would have to be significantly greater than 50% to make the appeal a good investment financially. In my opinion, the odds are much better than 50%.